Eighty percent of Seattle households worry that federal economic policies could trigger a recession, according to a September Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce survey of 700 voters across all seven City Council districts.
“Economic anxiety dominates. Voters are more concerned about their household finances,” said Lars Erickson, Chamber senior vice president of communications.
Half of voters expressed concern about personal finances, with 30% identifying affordability as the city’s biggest issue.
Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi recently stated that 21 states, including Washington, were either in recession or “on the precipice” of one. “As soon as you see negative employment … that’s when alarm bells should start going off,” Zandi said. “I would anticipate that that’s going to happen, and that’s going to happen soon.”
Washington gained 4,800 jobs over the past year, a 0.1% increase. In July, private-sector employers added 11,700 jobs while the public sector shed approximately 900.
State revenue projections have declined, with Washington’s Near General Fund collections through 2029 now expected to fall about $903 million below June’s forecast.
Jan Duras, interim director and chief economist for the Seattle area, estimated in June the region’s recession probability within a year at 40% to 50%, citing construction and tourism slowdowns.
The Chamber poll found 62% of voters lack confidence that Seattle delivers good value for tax dollars.
Affordability dominated a mayoral debate last week between incumbent Bruce Harrell and challenger Katie Wilson. Harrell attributed voter frustration to broad economic forces including housing costs outpacing income growth.
“The money is not going where it should,” Harrell said. “The cost of housing, the tariff policy, interest rates are high. Now what we’re going to do about it’s exactly what we were doing about it.”
Wilson called for greater housing density and social housing expansion. “Seattle voters … overwhelmingly … want the city to develop permanently affordable, publicly owned mixed-income housing,” Wilson said. “Not just for the people in that housing, but across the private market, because it means that private landlords have to compete with that public option.”
Pollsters explored whether homeowners support additional growth. “There’s this conventional wisdom that Seattle is reflexively anti-growth, particularly single-family homeowners in certain areas,” said Andrew Thibault, EMC Research senior principal, which conducted the poll with Fulcrum Strategic.
A majority of single-family homeowners favored growth, with 78% agreeing Seattle should streamline housing permitting and two-thirds saying adding housing helps lower costs.
“It’s not true that voters are reflexively anti-growth, even single-family homeowners,” Thibault said. “That doesn’t mean a particular project won’t attract opposition, but folks’ default position is not necessarily anti-growth.”
