Thanksgiving grocery prices have declined this year after several years of increases driven by inflation, offering families relief on holiday meal costs as key items including turkey, frozen vegetables, and dinner rolls have become notably cheaper than in 2024.
For a typical Thanksgiving dinner in 2025, consumers can expect to spend approximately 2% to 3% less on groceries than the previous year, according to an analysis conducted by Wells Fargo examining prices for traditional holiday meal components.
Overall grocery prices rose approximately 2.7% over the past year according to Consumer Price Index data, but Wells Fargo’s analysis found that Thanksgiving staples are not contributing to grocery inflation and have instead experienced price decreases that buck the broader trend of rising food costs.
“At the heart of the uptick in the CPI’s food-at-home increase is protein, specifically beef and eggs, which are not on the Thanksgiving menu,” the Wells Fargo report stated, explaining why holiday meal costs have diverged from general grocery inflation driven primarily by proteins that most families do not serve at Thanksgiving dinner.
Consumers can expect to spend approximately $80 on groceries for a 10-person Thanksgiving dinner if they purchase store brands, and around $95 if they opt for national brand names, according to Wells Fargo’s pricing analysis. The bank’s calculations are based on a traditional menu serving turkey, stuffing, frozen vegetables, prepared mashed potatoes, gravy, fresh cranberries, dinner rolls, salad mix, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream, items that appear on most American Thanksgiving tables.
Shoppers will find particularly significant savings on certain Thanksgiving dinner items this year, Wells Fargo’s analysis indicates:
- Turkeys have decreased 3.7% in price compared to last year
- Name-brand frozen vegetables have dropped 15%, a substantial decrease likely reflecting abundant harvests
- Private-brand dinner rolls have declined 22%, making store-brand bread products exceptionally affordable
- National-brand pumpkin pies are down 3%, though whipped cream has increased 3%, partially offsetting pie savings
- Stuffing, gravy mix, and fresh cranberries have increased modestly by approximately 3% to 4%
Major grocery retailers including Aldi, Walmart, Target, and Amazon Fresh are offering consumers budget-focused Thanksgiving meal packages, competing aggressively on price to attract holiday shoppers during one of the year’s most significant grocery shopping periods.
Aldi is offering the lowest-priced complete Thanksgiving meal at approximately $4 per person, positioning itself as the value leader amongst major retailers. The package Aldi has assembled includes a turkey as well as ingredients to prepare nine side dishes sufficient for 10 people, providing a comprehensive meal solution at a price point accessible to budget-conscious families.
“Price leadership is part of our DNA, and the holidays are when our commitment to value really shines,” stated Scott Patton, chief commercial officer of Aldi US. “We believe families shouldn’t have to make trade-offs to feed everyone, especially at Thanksgiving,” he added, articulating the retailer’s positioning around affordability during holidays when food expenses can strain household budgets.
Target is marketing a Thanksgiving meal package priced under $20 that serves four people, a smaller-scale offering designed for households hosting intimate gatherings rather than large extended family dinners.
“Our under-$20 Thanksgiving meal is priced even lower than last year’s, but we’re not stopping there,” stated Lisa Roath, Target’s executive vice president and chief merchandising officer of food, essentials, and beauty. “We also have new seasonal sides, stylish table décor, festive apparel, and beautiful greenery and florals,” she added, highlighting Target’s strategy of combining affordable meal components with higher-margin seasonal merchandise that enhances the holiday experience.
Walmart is offering a Thanksgiving basket that will serve 10 people for less than $40, approximately $4 per person, which represents the lowest price Walmart has ever offered on a holiday meal package in the company’s history. The aggressive pricing reflects intense competition amongst major retailers for Thanksgiving shoppers and Walmart’s strategy of using loss-leader pricing on holiday essentials to drive store traffic.
Amazon Fresh is offering consumers a complete meal with multiple side dishes for $25, serving six people, positioning the online grocery service competitively with brick-and-mortar retailers whilst leveraging the convenience of home delivery that appeals to time-constrained consumers preparing for holidays.
The declining Thanksgiving grocery costs arrive as welcome news for American families who have experienced sustained inflation in food prices over the past several years, eroding purchasing power and forcing difficult choices about meal planning and entertainment. The price decreases reflect a combination of factors including abundant harvests of key crops, easing supply chain pressures that had driven costs higher during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, and competitive dynamics amongst grocery retailers willing to accept thin margins on holiday staples to attract customers.
